Perspectives
Stay up-to-date with the current investment and macroeconomic issues at ClearBridge Investments. We provide analyses of the themes and trends which lie at the heart of your investment challenges.
AOR Update: Election Implications for U.S. Equities
Trump’s pro-business tax and regulatory policies should boost the outlook for corporate profits enough to offset headwinds from tariffs and higher bond yields.
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AOR Update: Election Themes and Investment Implications
Election outcomes will determine government policy across four key areas impacting the economy and equity markets: taxes, regulation, trade and fiscal spending.
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The Long View: Stick the Landing
A healthier U.S. economy, the start of a rate cutting cycle and aggressive Chinese stimulus all improve the chances of a soft landing.
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AOR Update: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard has seen a shift with Jobless Claims improving to green, a development inconsistent with substantial deterioration in the labour market.
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Rising Unemployment: Closer Look, Different Conclusion
A triggering of the Sahm rule has spooked financial markets in recent weeks but a deeper analysis shows increasing labour supply, rather than job losses, is a primary contributor to the pickup in unemployment.
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AOR Update: The Great Rotation?
With equities experiencing the most volatility since the pandemic, we examined the five factors driving the move out of mega cap growth stocks and why a slowing but still expansive economy, with the aid of imminent rate cuts, should support value, small cap and cyclical stocks in coming quarters as well as active management.
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The Long View: It's All About Perspective
The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard improved to an overall green signal this month with three underlying indicator improvements, supporting our view of continued economic normalisation.
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AOR Update: Resilient Economy Gets More Credit
Credit Spreads became the first indicator to turn green this month while Profit Margins improved to yellow, bringing the overall dashboard closer to green.
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AOR Update: Wage Moderation Allows Fed Patience
Jeff Schulze and Josh Jamner examine why slowing wage growth in the U.S. should offset fears that recent hot inflation prints could spur additional Fed tightening. They also explain how wages have achieved a “Goldilocks” zone supportive of a soft landing.
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The Long View: A Unique Cycle
The distinct nature of the current economic cycle appears to have tripped up many traditional recession indicators. Several leading indicators have improved over the last six months, including an upgrade of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard to yellow from red.
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AOR Update: It's Looking Different
Unsynchronised post-pandemic business cycles look to have spoiled recession expectations, with the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard moving from red to yellow, favouring a soft landing.
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AOR Update: Soft Landing Coming into View
The overall reading of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, while still in red or recessionary territory, is nearing the threshold for yellow.
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