Perspectives

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

5 Jan 2024

The Long View: Here Comes the Sun?

Several rays of light are showing through the macro clouds, including an increasing likelihood of a soft landing with the Fed being in a more flexible position as inflation moderates and three positive indicator changes for the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard in the last quarter.

Anatomy of a Recession Equity Insights Market Outlook

15 Dec 2023

U.S. Economic Outlook: Beware Lagged Effects

The economy is at the crux of this cycle, the most difficult period of headwinds. We expect the lagged effects of Fed tightening to slow economic growth during the first half of 2024 and we continue to maintain our base case of a recession as we move through this period.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

7 Dec 2023

AOR Update: The Fed is Done, What's Next?

With the U.S. market and Federal Open Market Committee suggesting the rate hike cycle is complete, the first rate cut could come by May, a pause consistent with the Fed’s “higher for longer” messaging.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Nov 2023

AOR Update: Not Always a Straight Line Down

Despite better than expected Q3 GDP, we remain cautious as consumption has historically remained strong right up until or even past the start of previous recessions.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Oct 2023

The Long View: The Crux

The toughest test for investors lies ahead as stimulus and consumer resilience fade while lagged effects of rate hikes take hold.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

29 Sep 2023

Higher Deficits to Impact Equity Valuations, Market Leadership

The U.S. interest burden is set to move higher in the coming decade and could eclipse the previous peak seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

8 Sep 2023

AOR Update: Lower Yields, So What?

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to decline in the coming year, creating catalysts for equity valuations and influencing market leadership.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

10 Aug 2023

AOR Update: When To Expect A Recession?

Considering the timeline from initial rate hike to contraction, the horizon for a recession could be between mid-2023 and mid-2024.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

10 Jul 2023

The Long View: Who's Right?

2Q23 Commentary: The second half could see a tug of war between market expectations for a soft landing and more cautious economic forecasts.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

8 Jun 2023

AOR Update: Labor Market Cracks Emerging

Despite continued strong headline numbers suggesting labor market resilience, we believe an upward trend in initial jobless claims signals weakness ahead.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook Video

9 May 2023

U.S. Recession Likelihood in 2023

Listen to Jeff Schulze discuss the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., detail factors contributing to inflation, and outline the implications of these developments for investors.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

3 May 2023

AOR Update: The Dominoes Are Falling

The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard saw three negative signal changes this month in Truck Shipments, Jobless Claims and Job Sentiment, pushing it deeper into red or recessionary territory and suggesting a significant downshift in the economy.