Perspectives

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Jun 2022

AOR Update: Will the Consumer Bend or Break?

In the latest Anatomy of a Recession update, Jeff and Josh trace the health of the labor market as key to taming inflation and achieving a softish landing for the economy.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

4 May 2022

AOR Update: Not Your Father's Energy Crisis

Jeff and Josh compare the current oil price spike to the Arab oil embargo that sparked the 1973-75 recession but note that today’s economy is starting from a stronger foundation as reflected by a green signal for the Recession Risk Dashboard. Cracks are appearing, however, with commodities and credit spreads weakening to yellow during April.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

7 Apr 2022

The Long View: When Doves Cry

Our latest Anatomy of a Recession update discusses how when even the most notable doves call out the risk of inflation, investors should take the Fed seriously.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

2 Mar 2022

AOR Update: Resilience in Wartime

While a European slowdown would be a headwind for U.S. growth, the expansion is slowing from elevated levels and recession risks remain low.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook Video

10 Feb 2022

2022 Inflation Outlook: Transitory or Structural?

Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze, CFA, and Investment Strategy Analyst Josh Jamner, CFA, discuss the likely trajectory of inflation in 2022 and the good news for long-term equity investors in the face of rising interest rates.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

7 Feb 2022

AOR Update: Home Sick

Investment Specialists, Jeff Schulze and Josh Jamner discuss how sick workers are measured in employment data could be understating jobs and overstating wage gains, and potentially impact monetary policy.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

10 Jan 2022

The Long View: 2022 - The Year of Transition

We expect more volatile equity markets with more muted returns than the last two years as the macro environment undergoes a shift in terms of phase of the economic cycle, the pandemic, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Dec 2021

AOR Update: The Anti-Taper Tantrum

With the economy recovering, removing QE is a step toward more normal but still accommodative monetary policy ahead of eventual rate hikes.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

8 Nov 2021

AOR Blog: Red Light, Green Light

Despite some investor worries about stagflation risks, solid 3Q earnings and a green signal for the ClearBridge Anatomy of a Recession Risk Dashboard suggest the US economy remains robust.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Oct 2021

The Long View: The Peak in Peaks

Headline risks around peak everything overlook rolling stock corrections in large swaths of the market and bearish investor sentiment, factors likely to soften the current drawdown.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

10 Sep 2021

Anatomy of a Recession: The More Things Change...

The overall economic backdrop remains healthy as illustrated by a continued green signal for the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, despite softer Retail Sales and consumer confidence.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

5 Aug 2021

Anatomy of a Recession: Mid-Cycle Transition No Reason to Sell

Despite a weaker than expected second quarter GDP print, we continue to believe the economy is undergoing a somewhat typical handoff from the early- to mid-cycle.