Perspectives
Stay up-to-date with the current investment and macroeconomic issues at ClearBridge Investments. We provide analyses of the themes and trends which lie at the heart of your investment challenges.
The Long View: Stick the Landing
A healthier U.S. economy, the start of a rate cutting cycle and aggressive Chinese stimulus all improve the chances of a soft landing.
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Midyear Equity Outlook: Rotation Seems Inevitable
While second-half profit expectations are likely to be reduced, we believe weakness will be contained, and the U.S. economy will avoid a recession.
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The Long View: It's All About Perspective
The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard improved to an overall green signal this month with three underlying indicator improvements, supporting our view of continued economic normalisation.
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AOR Update: Wage Moderation Allows Fed Patience
Jeff Schulze and Josh Jamner examine why slowing wage growth in the U.S. should offset fears that recent hot inflation prints could spur additional Fed tightening. They also explain how wages have achieved a “Goldilocks” zone supportive of a soft landing.
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The Long View: A Unique Cycle
The distinct nature of the current economic cycle appears to have tripped up many traditional recession indicators. Several leading indicators have improved over the last six months, including an upgrade of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard to yellow from red.
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AOR Update: It's Looking Different
Unsynchronised post-pandemic business cycles look to have spoiled recession expectations, with the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard moving from red to yellow, favouring a soft landing.
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AOR Update: Soft Landing Coming into View
The overall reading of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, while still in red or recessionary territory, is nearing the threshold for yellow.
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The Long View: Here Comes the Sun?
Several rays of light are showing through the macro clouds, including an increasing likelihood of a soft landing with the Fed being in a more flexible position as inflation moderates and three positive indicator changes for the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard in the last quarter.
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2024 Infrastructure Outlook: Diversification Benefits Could Be Timely
Infrastructure’s inflation pass-through worked well in 2023, supporting earnings across the asset class, while its defense and diversification could make it valuable in 2024.
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U.S. Equity Outlook: Market Breadth to Dictate Bullishness
CIO, Scott Glasser explains the importance of greater market participation to extend the current bull market and why high-quality defensive stocks, particularly in health care, are positioned to hold up better than the current mega cap leaders in an economic downturn.
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U.S. Economic Outlook: Beware Lagged Effects
The economy is at the crux of this cycle, the most difficult period of headwinds. We expect the lagged effects of Fed tightening to slow economic growth during the first half of 2024 and we continue to maintain our base case of a recession as we move through this period.
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AOR Update: The Fed is Done, What's Next?
With the U.S. market and Federal Open Market Committee suggesting the rate hike cycle is complete, the first rate cut could come by May, a pause consistent with the Fed’s “higher for longer” messaging.
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